The world woke up to find four suspicious leaks in Nord Stream and Nord Stream pipelines. This has kicked off a Whodunit as strategist rush to determine who did this, and why. As of this writing, no evidence has been made publicly available.
NATO has formally blamed sabotage for the pipeline damage, and stated that it would defer and defend against attack on NATO members’ infrastructure. You can read the statement here.
NATO also noted the impact that the leaking gas is having on shipping and the environment. According to Penn State, Natural gas contains some of the worst greenhouse gases, including methane, ethane, propane and butane.
The question is, what actor undertook this reckless act, and why. Join me in my game of whodunit as we analyze the situation in The Paul Kristoffer Show approach, which is to use logic.
I will use the following criteria to identify the main suspects in this whodunit mind game:
- What nation(s) stand to benefit, and how?
- What nation(s) have the means to carry out such sabotage, and have a high likelihood of success
- What nation(s) have the opportunity to commit an act?
Below is a table of the possible suspects and our analysis:
| Nation | Benefit | Means | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | – Gain support to continue to fund Ukraine Defense – Justify no fly zone over Ukraine – Justify attacks on Russian infrastructure | Yes | Yes |
| Russia | – Galvanize support at home for war – Gain more eager conscripts – Consolidate power | Yes | Yes |
| Ukraine | – Deal a blow to Russian economic lifeline | No | No |
| Iran | – Support Russia, a strategic ally | No | No |
| North Korea | – Gain publicity | No | No |
| China | – Support Russian Alliance | No | No |
As you can see from the above table, it is the U.S. and Russia that have the most to gain by sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines, the means and the opportunity. Arguably, the U.S. special forces, including the SEAL teams, train to specifically detonate underwater targets.
I included other nations that have demonstrated a willingness to commit acts of terrorism, most notably Iran. But Iran does not have the capability to pull off such an operation, so far from home. Same goes for North Korea.
China has not demonstrated state acts of terrorism, and I would be very surprised if China were behind this. China also has not demonstrated any type of special force capable of underwater sabotage.
There is also the evidence of President Biden himself:
The international whodunit will continue until convincing evidence emerges about what actor committed this reckless act. My analysis concludes that it is either the U.S. or Russia that committed the sabotage. But as in any murder mystery, there could be a stunning wildcard at the end of the story that shows that it was the butler.
Great post!